Thursday, October 23, 2008

Week 8 - Picks & Preview

It's that time of the week again...time for me to put forth my best psychic abilities and try to predict the outcomes of 5 of the games this weekend...

After last weeks dismal showing (2-3), I need to redeem myself. I have done a little research, thought long and hard, flipped a few coins, and here is what I've come up with...

(1) St. Louis at New England - in the past two weeks, those pesky Rams have been made a mockery of two teams that were supposed to be a part of the upper echelon of the NFL. Not only did they cover substantial spreads, but they beat both Washington and Dallas outright. Dallas allowed Steve Jackson to run all over the place for a total of 160 yards last Sunday. Will the Pats be able to stop Jackson? He's listed as questionable for this weekend, but usually "questionable" means he's gonna play on Sunday! Is it a fluke that the Rams have gone on a 2 game winning streak after an 0-4 start? Is New England going to be able to come up with another win like they did against Denver last week? Who knows?? The spread is +7.5 for the Rams. It depends on which team shows up on either side. Will the shaky Brady-less Pats show up? Or will the dominant Pats team that "has so many weapons it doesn't matter that they don't have Brady team" show up? Will the 0-4 Rams show up? Or will the Rams that beat the Skins and the Boys show up? No matter who shows up for either team, I think this is going to be a high scoring game. With the over/under at 42.5, I pick the over.

(2) Bills at Miami - Last week I picked against the Bills for the first time this year, and this week I'm crawling back to them. The Bills are -2 going into Miami this week after soundly defeating the Bolts last Sunday. On paper the Fish and the Bills look pretty even - the Fish are averaging 26.3 yards more on total offense than the Bills, but the Bills are averaging 39.8 fewer total yards allowed on defense than the Fish. I'm going to pick the Bills swarming defense in this match up and go with the fact that the Bills are on fire this year. If they win this week, this will be the first time that they have started a season 6-1 since 1993 - which coincidentally is when the Bills made their last of four straight trips to the Super Bowl. My pick is the Bills.




(3) MSU at UofM - How could I possibly do the picks and preview this week without mentioning this game! Last week, prior to their blowout loss to OSU, I would have told you that State was going to win this game hands down. Are we beginning to see signs of a "typical" MSU season - great start, not so great finish? As to the Maize and Blue...if there were only 2 quarters in a football game, I'd say this was a pretty great team. Will UofM find a way to put 4 quarters of solid football together? This game is one of the biggest rivalries in college ball and when these teams meet, this game is rarely a blowout. In fact, the only twice in the past 10 years that this match up has been decided by more than 2 scores - in 2006 UofM won 31-13 and in 2002 when UofM crushed State 49-3. Other than that, the score has been within around 7 points or less. No matter how good or bad either team is, this game seems to come down to the last few minutes or even a little OT. Both teams are going to bring their best efforts this Saturday and since Michigan is getting 3.5 points, I'm going with the points and the advantage of being in the Big House. My pick is UofM.



(4) KC Chiefs at New York Jets - I thought it would be fun to pick this game given the controversial circumstances surrounding the "beloved" Brett Favre. Apparently Brett has reverted to the maturity level of a pissed off junior high girl...you know, the one that was like totally popular last week, but ever since that Becky girl started that rumor about her, everyone totally hates her and her life is ruined! I used to LOVE watching Favre play. In my opinion he was one of the most entertaining players of all time because, not only is he a phenomonal quarterback, he looks like he was having so much fun doing it. When a guy in his 30s can remind you of how much fun a little kid has playing football, I think that's awesome. But ever since he started his drama-queen act - I'm retired, no I'm not, I'm retired, no I'm not. I'm a Packer, no I'm not, I'm a Packer, no I'm not. I told the Lions secrets about Green Bay, No I didn't, I'm just friends with Matt Millen and we just so happened to talk on the phone the week the Lions were going to play Green Bay...you get the point. Anyways, back to the game at hand. The Chiefs are getting 14 points in this game, but they are absolutely terrible. Jet Favre is at home and he needs to step up his game this week after a very disappointing OT loss to the Raiders last week. I think the Jets will cover...my pick is the Jets.


(5) Colts at Tennessee - Peyton tricked me last week. I've been a fan of his for quite some time now, and it's possible I got a little over excited after seeing what he did to Baltimore. Manning is a phenomonal quarterback, but perhaps the off-season knee surgery has messed with his head more than I originally thought. The Titans have proven themselves to be a very tough opponent - perhaps to tough for Manning and the Colts to overcome. The Titans have averaged almost 85 yards more per game in their passing offense. The Colts have a better average running game, but last week Chris Johnson and LenDale White seemed unstoppable - 317 combined rushing yards and 4 TDs! Will the Colts be able to stop them? I don't think so. At -4.5, I pick the Titans.

No comments: